tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-54079912012-02-10T04:26:52.246-05:00Deflation, disorder, development (and its demise), democracy (ditto) and dystopia.Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.comBlogger12261100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1168006903791055412007-01-05T08:52:00.000-05:002007-01-05T09:23:57.930-05:00

It's time for the BLS monthly employment report review. Here's the straight dope from Uncle Sam himself:Nonfarm employment increased by 167,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.5 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Job gains occurred in several service-providing industries, including professional and business services,

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com75tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1166813800118423692006-12-22T13:38:00.000-05:002006-12-22T13:56:40.160-05:00

Apparently it's all coming up roses on the consumer spending front, yet shouldn't the following continue to be causing somebody in high places some concern?Americans earned and spent more as the holiday season began, reinforcing the role consumers will play in extending the economic expansion to a sixth year.Spending rose 0.5 percent in November, the most in four months, and incomes increased 0.3

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1166462831139017882006-12-18T12:16:00.000-05:002006-12-18T13:32:38.053-05:00

The third quarter US current account figures are out today, and -- you guessed it -- we hit (another) all-time record deficit: $225.6bn.This is a bit deceptive in that the CA deficit in real terms was actually higher in 2005Q4 (in constant 2000 dollars per the GDP deflator, the CA deficit was $195.6bn in 2005Q4 while $193.7bn in 2006Q3), but who wants to quibble over a couple billion? The

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1165592033792183102006-12-08T10:17:00.000-05:002006-12-08T10:33:54.066-05:00

The Associated Press' take on the latest US employment numbers from the BLS:Employers boosted payrolls by a respectable 132,000 in November, but the unemployment rate edged up to 4.5 percent as jobseekers streamed into the labor market by the thousands with the onrushing holidays.The tally of new jobs added to the economy last month marked an improvement from the 79,000 new positions generated in

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1165201649517375492006-12-03T21:57:00.000-05:002006-12-03T22:07:30.556-05:00

From Friday's Financial Times:The dollar has fallen against currencies where base rates are both significantly higher and lower than in the US, indicating that current yield differentials are not playing a significant role. But a strong Ifo survey of German business sentiment, against a backdrop of poor US data, may have reinvigorated the view that rates on each side of the pond are heading in

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com7tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1164984004851409302006-12-01T08:43:00.000-05:002006-12-01T09:51:12.096-05:00

Good ol' Mr. Washington isn't dropping his jaw over the new Britney Spears photos.While this most recent decline in the USD has been under way since November of last year, the real dramatic slide began just after Columbus Day. Up to yesterday, the broad dollar is -2.4% and the major currencies dollar is -3.3% over just these seven weeks. And as usual, dollar decline is vented upon the European

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1164834636707834722006-11-29T15:54:00.000-05:002006-11-29T16:21:30.760-05:00

The wire services and the stock market are both taking the revised 2006Q3 US GDP report as an overall good sign that the US economy is on track for the fabled "soft landing". Mark Zandi sums up the general sentiment well:"It was a tough quarter, but not as tough as previously estimated," said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com. "But there's reason to be optimistic that the

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1164434471917767422006-11-25T00:56:00.000-05:002006-11-25T01:06:54.876-05:00

“The dollar is coming under real pressure and this looks like the beginning of a sustained move,” said Ian Stannard, strategist at BNP Paribas.

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1163561069883197712006-11-14T22:14:00.000-05:002006-11-14T22:49:23.940-05:00

One of my students recently wrote a paper on international labor standards. The primary foundation of his claim that they are not only unnecessary but actually harmful was that there is a very tight relationship between productivity and wages (or more broadly, labor compensation). Thus labor standards will only drive up wages higher than productivity levels will allow, forcing capital to

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1163129598966161482006-11-10T10:50:00.000-05:002006-11-10T10:59:59.666-05:00

You know you've fallen down the rabbit hole when you read something like this: Eleven million homeowners are facing higher bills after the Bank of England raised interest rates to their highest for five years.The Bank said the quarter-point hike in the base rate to 5 per cent was necessary to combat above-target inflation swollen by record increases in fuel bills. . . .Economists warned that

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1163101617119226942006-11-09T14:34:00.000-05:002006-11-09T15:31:42.750-05:00

By now you've all heard the September 2006 US trade figures: a $64.3bn deficit, nearly 7% smaller than that of August and the smallest tally since April. Still, the 13 largest monthly trade deficits of all time have occurred during the last 13 months -- but perhaps we should concentrate on the positive.Rather than talk about petroleum vs. non-petroleum imports or the deficit with China, I'd

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1162583784944897742006-11-03T14:48:00.000-05:002006-11-03T14:56:24.960-05:00

If for no other reason than this, I'm coming out of retirement (yes, again -- you'd think I was Bill Parcells or something):For a long time there we were told not to attack the fake centrists because at least they attacked Bush, too. But that position is now untenable because it became obvious that fake centrists only attacked Bush’s means, not his ends. Fake centrist economic schemes, which were

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1162581504903946832006-11-03T14:15:00.000-05:002006-11-03T14:33:58.883-05:00

In light of the Associated Press' (and others') strangely rosy depiction of the latest employment figures from the BLS, let's take a look at the updated employment numbers for working-age men:As of 2006Q3, the four-quarter moving average is 83.3%, i.e. 83.3% of men age 25-64 have jobs. Not only is the four-quarter moving average apparently reaching a plateau, but the post-2001 peak is just a

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1143937714744677732006-04-01T19:22:00.000-05:002006-04-01T19:28:34.800-05:00

Let's ease back in with some fun facts.FUN FACT #1With the February data now in, US consumers have run a negative savings rate for nine months straight -- and the most recent months are the worst since Katrina. No wonder the economy is doing so well.PERSONAL SAVINGS RATE2005Q2: -0.24%2005Q3: -1.59% (Katrina effect)2005Q4: -0.17%2006Q1 (so far): -0.51%FUN FACT #2The inverted yield curve. For the

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com47tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1139375297512809342006-02-08T09:07:00.000-05:002006-02-08T09:09:21.793-05:00

Back in July 2005 I did one of my more popular postings, "Yes, the job market really is weak". It had currency mostly due to my nifty graph showing the percentage of employed individuals in an American demographic group almost universally in need of work which doesn't wax and wane with educational or retirement opportunities, nor with social trends toward greater workforce participation rates.

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com40tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1138978563148893432006-02-03T09:13:00.000-05:002006-02-03T09:56:03.216-05:00

The media is all in a lather this morning over the January US jobs numbers.Employers stepped up hiring in January, boosting payrolls by 193,000 and lowering the nation's unemployment rate to 4.7 percent, the lowest since July 2001.The fresh snapshot of the jobs climate, released by the Labor Department on Friday, suggested that the economy started the new year on fairly good footing.Although the

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1138650841545416162006-01-30T14:40:00.000-05:002006-01-30T15:26:42.220-05:00

The American consumer turned in his/her third lowest personal savings rate of the year in December, -0.7%.Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments increased $81.3 billion in December, compared with an increase of $49.8 billion in November. PCE increased $80.2 billion, compared with an increase of $48.6 billion.Personal saving -- DPI less personal

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com18tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1138372392271896402006-01-27T09:23:00.000-05:002006-01-27T10:35:00.270-05:00

The end of cheap credit in America finally begins to show its effects in the broadest of measures, gross domestic product.The economy grew at only a 1.1 percent annual in the fourth quarter of last year, the slowest pace in three years, amid belt-tightening by consumers facing spiraling energy costs. . . .The Commerce Department report, released Friday offered the latest figures on gross

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com11tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1137425601671406712006-01-16T09:58:00.000-05:002006-01-16T10:33:21.736-05:00

Now that the Sunday morning talks shows have come and gone and the Sunday papers are read and thrown in for recycling, the talking heads have gotten everybody and their Aunt Bessie hot and bothered over the Iranian nuclear program. Perhaps the most incendiary talking head is our friendly neighborhood imperialist Niall Ferguson in the Sunday Telegraph:The origins of the Great War of 2007 - and

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com23tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1136575582484973672006-01-06T13:58:00.000-05:002006-01-06T14:26:22.546-05:00

Good luck to the South Korean government and to the Bank of Korea. They'll need it.South Korea’s finance ministry said on Friday it would mobilise all possible means to curb the won’s recent sharp appreciation against the US dollar.The statement came a day after the currency hit an eight-year high against the greenback, intensifying concern among government officials that the stronger won could

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com22tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1136557737503885812006-01-06T09:11:00.000-05:002006-01-06T09:28:57.573-05:00

While one can blame Katrina for the amazingly weak US job growth figures in September and October, there is no natural disaster to save us from the December job numbers released today.Job growth slowed in December — following a big hiring spurt in November — with employers expanding payrolls by just 108,000, underscoring the sometimes choppy path traveled by job seekers. . . .December's gain of

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1135612089416147182005-12-26T10:10:00.000-05:002005-12-26T10:48:09.473-05:00

Back in early 2004 the Bank of England was in the middle of a robust interest-rate hiking campaign. It opened the year at 3.75% and by August 2004 was up to 4.75%. Consumer inflation was never a real problem, with British CPI running in a 1.0-1.5% range at the time. It was really about housing prices, and the central bank's dramatic action took the air out of the UK housing bubble for sure.

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com39tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1135262096714170492005-12-22T08:57:00.000-05:002005-12-22T09:34:57.056-05:00

The good news is that it appears to be that Joe and Jane Consumer's descent into the nether-regions of debt-for-consumption has moderated. The bad news is that the new equilibrium is still negative. Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments increased $25.9 billion in November, compared with an increase of $14.0 billion in October. PCE increased

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com32tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1134757779831864762005-12-16T12:29:00.000-05:002005-12-16T13:31:24.906-05:00

To the surprise of many, the US current account deficit actually shrank (marginally) in the third quarter of 2005.The Commerce Department reported that the deficit in the U.S. current account totaled $195.8 billion in the third quarter. That was down 1 percent from the deficit in the April-June quarter of $197.8 billion, which had been a 0.4 percent improvement from the record deficit of $198.7

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com28tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1134589260215711612005-12-14T14:07:00.000-05:002005-12-14T15:05:24.576-05:00

The word is out from the Commerce Department: October's seasonally adjusted US trade deficit in goods and services tallies up to a gargantuan $68.9bn. You don't need me to tell you it's a record. Or that it's a full $2.9bn larger than the old deficit record set way back in September. Or that the 2005 trade deficit is on track for 19% annual growth over 2004 and 45% growth over 2003 (that, too,

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com32tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1134138786085985362005-12-09T09:23:00.000-05:002005-12-09T09:33:06.133-05:00

It's a big snow day here in the Northeast. The kids are home and I'm on duty to make sure nobody kills each other.But you don't want to know about domestic life at the Glut house. You want to know what's next for the global economy. On that very topic, I am currently digesting a very interesting (and mercifully short!) paper by Ricardo Hausmann and Federico Sturzenegger on the US current

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com83tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1133792187810166562005-12-05T09:03:00.000-05:002005-12-05T09:16:27.863-05:00

Do you remember these words spoken in November 2004 by People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Li Ruogu?The appreciation of the RMB will not solve the problems of unemployment in the US because the cost of labour in China is only three per cent that of US labour. They should give up textiles, shoe-making and even agriculture probably. . . . They should concentrate on sectors like aerospace and

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com29tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1133634644220382142005-12-03T13:16:00.000-05:002005-12-03T13:54:42.550-05:00

Well, this ought to help the $80bn goods trade deficit the US is going to rack up with Japan this year.The amazing shrinking yen continued its slide this week, crashing to a seven-year low point against the euro, sterling, Australian dollar and South Korean won and to a 30-month low against the US dollar. . . .The chief problem for the yen is that the flattening of the US yield curve has made it

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1133550889183980962005-12-02T13:44:00.000-05:002005-12-02T14:14:49.243-05:00

Dear Uncle Alan seems concerned that the US federal government spends dramatically more than it receives in income. Too bad he's not terribly interested in American households doing the same thing.To demonstrate how dependent the contemporary US economy -- and by extension of America's role as the buyer of first resort (remember that we're screaming towards a $725bn trade deficit this year), the

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com47tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1133388086084044862005-11-30T16:58:00.000-05:002005-11-30T17:01:26.136-05:00

For the first posting since the extended not-so-voluntary vacation, let me hit upon one of General Glut's favorite themes.You all probably saw the big revision to 2005:III GDP: 4.3%. Maybe you didn't see the whole story, however. First, consumer spending as a % of GDP rose to 70.2%. After beginning to descend from the heights of early 2003 (peaking at 70.5% in 2003:I) and falling all the way to

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com46tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1130878284940880892005-11-01T15:31:00.000-05:002005-11-01T15:51:25.200-05:00

He's not dead. Only resting.Some of you may know, and others may not, that General Glut is an untenured professor at a liberal arts college somewhere in America. I was on sabbatical all last academic year, and thus the reams and reams of blogging which ensued. This fall the glorious freedom of leave came to an end. Students. Lots of them. Demanding students. Grading. Departmental search

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com73tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1127498112244883182005-09-23T12:45:00.000-05:002005-09-23T12:55:12.256-05:00

The further east she turns, the more oil platforms in the Gulf are in the direct path of the storm.Thus I must admit I'm a little surprised that the markets have been reacting to the eastward shift in Rita's path positively. Crude oil on the NYMEX is down to $64.80/barrel at latest. Reaction seems to be driven by confidence that refining capacity won't be damaged due to the storm's weakening to

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com707tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1127334158658746692005-09-21T15:01:00.000-05:002005-09-21T15:29:45.763-05:00

My dystopian sensibilities were definitely piqued by CNN Money today.Remember when gas spiked to $3-plus a gallon after Hurricane Katrina? By this time next week, that could seem like the good old days. Weather and energy experts say that as bad as Hurricane Katrina hit the nation's supply of gasoline, Hurricane Rita could be worse. Katrina damage was focused on offshore oil platforms and ports.

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com318tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1126877859272312872005-09-16T08:05:00.000-05:002005-09-16T08:37:39.296-05:00

Or so say the Congressional Republicans.The drive to pour tens of billions of federal dollars into rebuilding the hurricane-battered Gulf Coast is widening a fissure among Republicans over fiscal policy, with more of them expressing worry about unbridled spending.On Thursday, even before President Bush promised that "federal funds will cover the great majority of the costs of repairing public

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com560tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1126793667510536802005-09-15T08:58:00.000-05:002005-09-15T09:21:03.006-05:00

I know. It's hard to not look at those gasoline signs while you drive to and fro. But if you can ignore them, you'll see that consumer inflation in the United States is quite simply not a problem.The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in August, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com115tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1126729697070615932005-09-14T14:41:00.000-05:002005-09-14T15:28:17.163-05:00

It is not unusual in my house and the houses of my relatives for the male members of the family eat tremendous amounts of food at the Thanksgiving table, and then saunter off to the couch to watch football and in quick succession fall asleep. The American consumer seems to be exhibiting the same "binge and bunk" behavior.The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that advance estimates of U.S.

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com323tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1126730315060866342005-09-14T14:00:00.000-05:002005-09-14T15:38:35.060-05:00

If you read the Globblog, you're probably reading Calculated Risk as well. I feel compelled, however, to praise quite publicly his recent data culling on gasoline consumption (which is falling) and the NSA trade deficit broken down into petroleum imports, China imports and other imports (the first two are rising rapidly). If you haven't seen the latest CR charts yet, you are doing yourself a

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1126619594174492042005-09-13T08:07:00.000-05:002005-09-13T08:53:14.183-05:00

Well surprise, surprise. Depsite steadily rising oil prices in July -- WTI spot prices averaged $59/barrel, up 4.7% over June and the price of imported petroleum and petroleum products jumped 6.2% in July -- the US trade deficit for July actually shrank.The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total July exports of

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com69tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1126295364992022582005-09-09T14:11:00.000-05:002005-09-09T14:49:25.000-05:00

Are the big fat paychecks of American workers threatening a new round of destruction inflation? Economists seem to be sounding the alarm bell. On Wednesday the BLS released its revised second quarter productivity and costs data which showed, according to Reuters, lower labor productivity and rising wage costs renewed concerns about inflation and the outlook for interest rates. . . . "Today's

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com321tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1125581698180504902005-09-01T08:34:00.000-05:002005-09-01T08:34:58.190-05:00

Just resurfacing for a brief moment to say: I told you so.The combination of a surge in spending and slower income growth sent the personal savings falling to a minus 0.6 percent, the lowest level since the government began keeping these [monthly] records in 1959.In 1933 the personal savings rate in the US was -1.5% -- the lowest ever. Over the first 7 months of 2005 it stands at +0.2%. We're

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com393tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1125161068675703442005-08-27T11:17:00.000-05:002005-08-27T11:44:28.773-05:00

I took an unplanned and unexpected four days off this week from blogging. Some of it was due to approaching deadlines: an article due at the end of this month and the fall semester starting in less than two weeks. Some of it was due to a slow news weeks. Upon reflection, however, much of it was due to the shocking murder of Brother Roger Schutz in Taizé, France.For those of you who do not know

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com707tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1124720056676387582005-08-22T09:14:00.000-05:002005-08-22T11:33:28.776-05:00

Feeling snippy today.I read that former Senator George Allen (R-VA), yet another of the Republican hopefuls of 2008, said on This Week yesterday that, as AP paraphrases, a constitution guaranteeing basic freedoms would provide a rallying point for Iraqis."I think this is a very crucial time for the future of Iraq," Allen said on "This Week" on ABC. "The terrorists don't have anything to win the

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1124393943371682722005-08-19T11:33:00.000-05:002005-08-19T11:59:49.596-05:00

So why is general inflation so low when energy prices are so high? I suggested in passing on Tuesday thatthere aint nothin' gonna stop us 'Mericans from buyin' our gas. Those skyrocketing gas prices might stop us from buying everything else, however.It seems that Wal-Mart has the same inkling as well as a couple of corporate economists."Unlike the past when oil had a huge inflationary impact,

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com533tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1124316308119323422005-08-17T16:50:00.000-05:002005-08-17T17:05:08.146-05:00

According to Richard DeKaser, chief economist of National City Corp., housing markets in 53 US cities are currently "extremely overvalued" -- defined asprices are 30% above where he estimates they should be based on historic price data, area income, mortgage rates and population density — a proxy for land scarcity.The failure of US incomes to rise much at all in the face of this housing boom is a

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com488tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1124204659024966842005-08-16T08:53:00.000-05:002005-08-16T10:04:19.090-05:00

In July 2005, crude oil (WTI) spot prices jumped 4.7%, average gasoline prices rose 6.1%, and petroleum import prices rose 6.6%. No wonder, then, that the the CPI for petroleum-based energy rose 6.1% on the month -- the only thing keeping consumer inflation above the zero line.The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.5 percent in July, before seasonal adjustment, the

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com416tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1124122661570984002005-08-15T09:12:00.000-05:002005-08-15T11:17:41.586-05:00

Today, let's follow the bouncing ball:Exhibit 1: foreigners liked US corporate debt in June. They really liked it. International investors bought a net $71.2 billion Treasury notes, corporate bonds and other securities, compared with $55.8 billion in the previous month. The report reinforced speculation rising interest rates in the U.S. compared with Europe and Japan are increasing demand for

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com122tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1123857649706638262005-08-12T08:47:00.000-05:002005-08-12T09:53:58.040-05:00

Brad (aka Bob) was right. Calculated Risk was right. Hell, even I was right after further consideration.The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total June exports of $106.8 billion and imports of $165.6 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $58.8 billion, $3.4 billion more than the $55.4 billion in

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com172tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1123777954219191272005-08-11T11:02:00.000-05:002005-08-11T11:32:34.233-05:00

Despite the fact that the personal savings rate in June 2005 hit 0.0%, Americans have decided to buy yet more things in July.U.S. retail sales surged 1.8 percent last month as buyer incentives led to the biggest gain in auto sales since just after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, when carmakers flying the flag put in place zero percent financing deals, a government report showed on Thursday.July's

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com383tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1123698584113785422005-08-10T12:45:00.000-05:002005-08-10T13:31:42.233-05:00

After driving some 1300 miles across the midwest over the past two days, the big spike in gas prices has hit my wallet a little harder than most. Yet even though crude oil on the NYMEX is over $64/barrel, one is constantly met by the rejoinder that "things were worse in 1981" when the real price of oil was near $90/barrel in current dollars.So are gas prices really much ado about nothing? In

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1123304951563343512005-08-06T00:01:00.000-05:002005-08-06T00:09:40.173-05:00

Another fun fact on the non-existent US personal savings rate:In fact, the government's calculation may even overstate how much of a typical paycheck is going into savings. Any money directed into 401(k) plans is considered to be part of take-home pay in the government calcuation. But that 401(k) money isn't available to spend. Take a person who contributes 10 percent of income to a 401(k). If

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com20tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1123278831071875782005-08-05T16:29:00.000-05:002005-08-05T16:53:51.083-05:00

The BLS reports today that the job picture in the US is looking pretty good. After a very disappointing May and June, July turns in a better-than-expected number.Nonfarm employment grew by 207,000 in July, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.0 percent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. Over the month, payroll employment rose in many

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com109tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1123215474504291832005-08-04T22:49:00.000-05:002005-08-04T23:17:54.516-05:00

Something we (that's the royal "we", FYI) here at the Globblog have been expecting for some time has now come to fruition.The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee today voted to reduce the Bank's repo rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.5%. In the first half of the year, output growth in the United Kingdom was subdued. Household spending and business investment growth have slowed. Although

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com456tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1123104837796201232005-08-03T15:48:00.000-05:002005-08-03T16:48:01.596-05:00

As I mentioned yesterday, the US personal savings rate has reached the Rubicon. In June 2005 we as a country officially saved 0.0% of our disposable (i.e. after-tax) personal income.The Great Vanishing American Savings Rate has been a long time coming, but the pace has really picked up over the last two years. Since June 2003, real DPI has risen 6.04% while real personal consumption

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com457tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1123000617148492732005-08-02T11:26:00.000-05:002005-08-02T11:36:57.163-05:00

Some said it couldn't be done. But we're Americans. "Can't" isn't in our vocabulary.So we did it. In June 2005 the US personal savings rate officially hit 0.0%. Personal savings recorded were a barely measurable $1.9bn at annualized rates -- or around $160 million for the month.Over the last year, disposable personal income is up 5.3% while personal consumption expenditures are up 6.7%. And

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com127tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1122912601693059732005-08-01T10:38:00.000-05:002005-08-01T15:40:39.833-05:00

The Commerce Department tells us today thatbuilders have been paring spending each month after the value of all construction projects surged to an all-time high of $1.13 trillion, on an annualized basis, in February.Spending on all construction projects dipped by 0.3 percent in June from the previous month.This overall figure masks important differences within the construction industry. On the

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com142tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1122666635672804932005-07-29T14:52:00.000-05:002005-07-29T14:50:35.700-05:00

The good surface news on the US economy just keeps on coming. Today the Commerce Department reports that second quarter real GDP growth was a robust 3.4% -- and if wasn't for the big, big drop in private inventory investment during 2005:II, the overall figure would have been even higher.Here are a few tidbits that jumped out at me from this report.First, residential investment continues on high

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com504tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1122418249155821042005-07-26T17:43:00.000-05:002005-07-26T17:50:49.170-05:00

I'm in the Midwest for the next two weeks catching up with relatives, old friends, and the Red Sox (who are playing the Twins next weekend -- look for me in center field!). So blogging will be light for the near future.In the meantime, here's a theme: sometimes you have to get sicker for a chance to really become well. We believe in very fundamental change, not incremental reform.We believe in

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1122044633132972732005-07-22T09:29:00.000-05:002005-07-22T10:03:53.143-05:00

Two weeks ago the interest rate on one-year adjustable rate mortgages broke the ceiling of the fluctuation band it had been in for the last two-and-a-half years. In September 2002 the one-year ARM rate fell below 4.3%, eventually falling as low as 3.36% in March 2004. It began rising sharply after that and occasionally bounced against that 4.3% ceiling as in November 2004 and steadily since

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com528tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1122042279112433972005-07-22T09:10:00.000-05:002005-07-22T09:24:39.123-05:00

This is old news, but for three months in a row now consumer prices have actually been increasing in Japan. After hitting their post-1997 trough in February, the annualized (NSA) inflation rate since that time has been a dramatic +3.3%, although with seasonal adjustment, the figure is a much more tepid +0.4%.May also marks the first time since December that Japanese consumer prices have risen

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1121953285260346672005-07-21T08:08:00.000-05:002005-07-21T08:41:25.273-05:00

Well, it's finally here -- the new and improved renminbi (in a slightly more powerful formula)!The yen jumped sharply against a range of currencies following the announcement by the People’s Bank of China that it would revalue the renminbi, following pressure from leading industrialised countries.The PBOC said it would re-peg the renminbi to Rmb8.11, from Rmb8.2765, and it would adopt a currency

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com105tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1121868678231213292005-07-20T08:32:00.000-05:002005-07-20T09:14:49.433-05:00

The accolades from the social conservatives this morning for Bush's nomination of John G. Roberts, Jr. are deafening."There's no question that President Bush is a promise keeper," said Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, which is marshaling support among evangelicals for Bush's judicial nominees.The Rev. Louis P. Sheldon, chairman of the Traditional Values Coalition, described

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com14tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1121877745385088652005-07-20T07:00:00.000-05:002005-07-20T16:36:03.130-05:00

OK, I read these two comments from some pretty prominent voices on the left side of the Democratic Party today. The first from MoveOn. org (via mass emailing):In the past weeks, Republicans and Democrats have called on President Bush to nominate a moderate for the Supreme Court—someone who would honor the legacy of independent Justice Sandra Day O'Connor. But last night, President Bush nominated

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1121787337316175272005-07-19T10:29:00.000-05:002005-07-19T20:13:10.620-05:00

The Associated Press reports today that "speculation is converging" around Edith Clement to replace Sandra Day O'Connor for the Supreme Court. There are two relevant bits of information you should know regarding Clement.The first, from today's AP story:Known as a conservative and a strict constructionist in legal circles, Clement also has eased fears among abortion-rights advocates. She has

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1121459317475468502005-07-15T15:13:00.000-05:002005-07-15T15:28:37.486-05:00

On Wednesday I saidJune delivery contracts for petroleum on the NYMEX were much higher than for May delivery three months out, but were actually lower one month out. Thus we probably won't see a big oil import bill in the June trade report eitherI should have consulted the latest BLS report on import and export prices before saying that.Per the BLS, US petroleum import prices jumped 7.6% in June.

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com33tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1121346861991901582005-07-14T07:53:00.000-05:002005-07-14T09:32:46.323-05:00

Another tepid inflation report released today by the BLS.The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in June, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The June level of 194.5 (1982-84=100) was 2.5 percent higher than in June 2004. . . .On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U was unchanged in

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com554tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1121259915698782042005-07-13T09:01:00.000-05:002005-07-13T09:04:04.926-05:00

May's trade figures show the third largest trade monthly deficit on record with China, but a big drop in petroleum imports (by value, not by volume!) helped shrink the May trade deficit to its second smallest size this year. Hey, every little bit helps.The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total May exports of

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com258tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1121193634510661932005-07-12T13:40:00.000-05:002005-07-12T13:43:26.660-05:00

Global currency traders have been careening between the cyclical and the structural this past week. On July 5 the broad dollar reached its highest point since October 2004; one week later it's fallen 3%. Why the big change? Oh, folks just remembered that 6.4% of GDP current account deficit.The dollar fell, heading for its biggest two-day decline against the euro since January 2004, on

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com51tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1121103993124521482005-07-11T12:56:00.000-05:002005-07-11T15:00:22.760-05:00

A small debate has ensued between James Hamilton of Econbrowser and Pro-Growth Liberal of AngryBear over the interpretation of recent employment data, with the central dispute over whether current employment levels are 'good enough'. Rather than wrestling over the distorting effects of teenage employment or the question of whether a return to the total employment levels of 2000 is either

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com518tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1121104551670356762005-07-11T12:30:00.000-05:002005-07-11T12:55:51.670-05:00

American Politburo, today at The American Street.

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1121028166422744722005-07-10T15:13:00.000-05:002005-07-10T16:34:19.770-05:00

Most readers of the Globblog, I suspect, are cultural liberals. When Markos Moulitsas listed assisted suicide and abortion on demand as "core values" of the Democratic Party, I suspect most readers of the Globblog agreed with him.I don't.The New York Times has long been a megaphone for what Pope John Paul II called the "culture of death" (FYI: I am not Roman Catholic). On the issue of

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com127tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1120833789326575582005-07-08T08:42:00.000-05:002005-07-08T09:43:09.336-05:00

The June jobs figures have been released by the BLS, and the news is not good.Hiring around the country picked up slightly in June with employers adding 146,000 jobs — helping to push the unemployment rate down to 5 percent, the lowest in nearly four years. . . .The modest payroll gain of 146,000 jobs in June was up from 104,000 net jobs added in May. Payroll growth for both April and May turned

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com303tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1120761896413093922005-07-07T13:27:00.000-05:002005-07-07T13:44:56.430-05:00

Tomorrow the June employment numbers are released. The Briefing.com folks are forecasting nonfarm payroll growth for the month of 175,000 jobs while the "consensus" expects 195,000. While both these numbers are a world better than May's anemic 78,000 jobs created, don't be fooled by these apparently big forecasts. Over the last six months, monthly job growth (SA) has averaged 175,500; over the

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com96tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1120741862637381312005-07-07T07:47:00.000-05:002005-07-07T11:01:25.276-05:00

I know you're not visiting the Globblog today to hear news of the London terrorist attacks, but I thought I'd give you my personal reaction nonetheless.As regular readers know, my family and I recently returned to the US from spending four months in London (January 31 to May 31 of this year). I rode the Metropolitan Line almost every day going into the LSE or to tourist attractions in Central

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1120571188892492352005-07-05T08:37:00.000-05:002005-07-05T09:49:47.796-05:00

I've been spilling a good amount of electronic ink on the California housing bubble of late (see here, here, here and here for posts in June alone) and thought it's high time to begin widening my horizons. So today I turn the lens on the Northeast and the Bay State in particular, a region which is especially similar to the Bay Area in combining wild home price rises and a stagnant job

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com206tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1120502741197188962005-07-04T13:37:00.000-05:002005-07-04T13:47:32.710-05:00

"The care of human life and happiness and not their destruction is the first and only legitimate object of good government."-- Thomas Jefferson

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com82tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1120230398234532262005-07-01T10:09:00.000-05:002005-07-01T10:06:38.246-05:00

All signs are that the Bank of England is beginning to rue its August 2004 interest rate hike. That final round of tightening took the repo rate to 4.75%. Since that time, UK home price inflation has fallen from 18.9% to 4.1%; home sales fell from a seasonally-adjusted 96,000 per month to 53,000; mortgage equity withdrawl fell from £11.3bn a quarter to under £7bn (2005:I data to be released

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com472tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1120147431935712092005-06-30T10:51:00.000-05:002005-06-30T11:03:51.946-05:00

The release of the May personal income and outlays report allows me to update the consumer inflation numbers I talked about two weeks ago.After release of the May CPI report, I saidA consumer inflation level of 2.8% is quite low in the grand scheme of things and is now at its lowest point since September 2004. Energy prices have obviously been through the roof, with the compound annual rate for

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com533tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1120146012309571682005-06-30T10:36:00.000-05:002005-06-30T10:40:12.310-05:00

Yesterday I argued that the punch bowl fueling the US economic party was little more than 'bum wines' like Mad Dog and Cisco (ah, those college days . . .). Barry Ritholtz has a, shall we say, more 'provocative' analogy.

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1120138347469000682005-06-30T07:47:00.000-05:002005-06-30T10:28:24.430-05:00

That weak May retail sales report was no joke. As the BEA reports this morning, personal consumption expenditures fell in real terms for the second time this year.While the slight fall in consumption expenditures is good news in the big picture of global economic adjustment, the failure of American disposable incomes to rise much at all -- and then to find their way into personal savings --

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com23tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1120058122649852152005-06-29T08:29:00.000-05:002005-06-29T10:15:22.746-05:00

There seems to be back-slapping all around this morning in the wake of the release of the final revisions to 2005:I GDP.The economy logged a solid 3.8 percent growth rate in the first quarter of 2005, a performance that was better than previously thought and a fresh sign the expansion is on firm footing.The new reading on gross domestic product, released by theCommerce Department on Wednesday,

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com69tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1119987187849360562005-06-28T14:31:00.000-05:002005-06-28T14:33:07.860-05:00

The Conference Board tells us today that John and Jane Consumer are feelin’ good. It’s not exactly clear, however, why they are.

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1119888045153067122005-06-27T10:15:00.000-05:002005-06-27T11:00:45.226-05:00

From Martin Wolf's column in the Financial Times today (sub. only):High savings rates in oil-rich countries are not surprising. Nor are they foolish. Recipients of a windfall do well to spread the spending out over time. But Russia's current account surplus of 10 per cent of GDP last year must also reflect the dreadful investment climate in that country.Yet Asia is, once again, the big story.

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com198tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1119710990836143572005-06-25T09:47:00.000-05:002005-06-25T22:36:28.516-05:00

Sorry for the mess which has become my blog. I can't figure out why there is the persistent enormous gap between the title and the post of the first entry on the front page. I've tinkered with about everything I can think of and the only thing that fixed it (a "float:left" command for the post) made it work in IE but screwed it up completely in Netscape.I have a help request into Blogger; we'll

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com24tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1119704688651675702005-06-25T08:05:00.000-05:002005-06-25T08:08:52.226-05:00

Yet more evidence that, in the face of overaccumulation, Alan Greenspan is the invisible man as far as long-term interest rates go.US 10-year Treasury yields looked set to close below 4 per cent this week even as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve to raise short-term interest rates again next week.At the same time, the yield on the German 10-year Bund fell as low as 3.105 per cent on

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1119554340822562832005-06-23T19:45:00.000-05:002005-06-25T09:39:37.566-05:00

Alan Greenspan pays the Vogon today before the Senate Finance Committee, saying in short, "resistance is useless". Greenspan and Treasury Secretary John Snow, who testified to the Senate Finance Committee, faced persistent questioning from some legislators who said China's trade policies, especially its currency regime, are unfair and illegal. Greenspan also cast doubt that a revaluation of

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com196tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1119361205244143672005-06-22T08:18:00.000-05:002005-06-22T08:14:48.506-05:00

Roger Altman chimes in on "the conundrum" in yesterday's WSJ (sub. only), but does little more than echo Ben Bernanke:Three alternative schools of thought have emerged to explain it. One is that the bond market has overshot. A second is that the growth outlook is actually weaker than the consensus forecast, and the bond market is discounting such slower growth before it manifests itself. But the

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com114tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1119369065270645552005-06-21T10:49:00.000-05:002005-06-21T10:51:05.303-05:00

Vietnamese Prime Minister Phan Van Khai . . . is meeting Bush in the Oval Office on Tuesday during a weeklong visit to the United States, where he is meeting with business leaders on both coasts. Khai is ringing the opening bell at the New York Stock Exchange later this weekBoy, they don't make communists like they used to.

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1119285871620014382005-06-20T11:26:00.000-05:002005-06-20T11:44:31.650-05:00

A real gem from today's Wall Street Journal (sub. required):Federal Reserve officials expect housing prices eventually to level off and restrain consumer spending. But they believe business investment and exports will increase by then and pick up the slack, maintaining overall growth for the U.S. economy.Hmmm.Real US nonresidential investment grew 10.6% in 2004, not terribly far below the pace of

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1119281435695162922005-06-20T10:10:00.000-05:002005-06-25T21:32:35.460-05:00

I noted earlier this month that California in particular has built its recent job recovery -- what little there is of it -- on the housing sector. Firstly, the Golden State has seen slower than average job growth from April 2003 to April 2005 -- 2.4% compared to 2.8% in the US minus California. On top of that slower job growth is an economy stunningly dependent on the statewide housing bubble.

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com219tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1119026777236702972005-06-17T11:42:00.000-05:002005-06-17T11:46:17.236-05:00

In my recent posts on inflation -- Inflation, Shminflation and Inflation, Shminflation Part 2 (I agree, I'm no poet) -- I hinted at a case for a return to whiffs of deflation in the coming year. You may say I'm a dreamer, but I'm not the only one.

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1119026173699812192005-06-17T10:44:00.000-05:002005-06-17T11:36:13.770-05:00

Back around the turn of the century, smart economists like Catherine Mann were saying that a US current account deficit above 5.0% of GDP would spur natural counter-balancing mechanisms to bring the US accounts back toward balance. In our brave new world, however, CA deficits of even 6% of GDP are clearly no match for the greatest consumer engine on earth.How do we know? Because the BEA reports

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1118946688613901562005-06-16T12:42:00.000-05:002005-06-16T13:31:28.720-05:00

Alan & Co. is set to raise the federal funds rate at the end of the month to 3.25%, but anybody who once thought that Fed tightening has any effect on the housing market has long since given up on that fairy tale.Freddie Mac reports today that mortgage rates continue to hover around 14-month lows. The one-year ARM stands at just 4.25%, still within the band it has bounced around in since late

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1118844671090903292005-06-15T09:11:00.000-05:002005-06-15T09:11:11.180-05:00

Yesterady we had the May producer price index report showing us inflation in America is nothing to worry about. Today we have the May consumer price index telling us the same thing.The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) decreased 0.1 percent in May, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The May level of

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1118757037352130052005-06-14T08:38:00.000-05:002005-06-14T08:50:37.360-05:00

Get laid. Get stoned. Get dead.And this is going to lead the Dems back to power in 2006/08??

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1118755745927915722005-06-14T07:52:00.000-05:002005-06-14T08:29:05.993-05:00

If you want to find inflation, look to housing. You won't find it in consumer goods and services, where PCE inflation is running at a tepid 2.7% and core PCE inflation at a downright cool 1.6%. And as the BLS tells us this morning, you won't find it at the producer level, either.The Producer Price Index for Finished Goods fell 0.6 percent in May, seasonally adjusted, the Bureau of Labor

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com10tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1118668294440848532005-06-13T07:57:00.000-05:002005-06-13T08:11:34.446-05:00

First it was Alan Greenspan. Then it was Alan Greenspan again. Then the East Asian central banks pitched in. And now the Army is doing its part to keep the US housing boom going.The Army wants to double the top cash bonus for new recruits to $40,000 in an effort to stem a continued recruiting shortfall in the midst of the Iraq war.As another incentive, the Army is proposing a pilot program to

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1118417327038608572005-06-11T06:50:00.000-05:002005-06-11T06:59:33.603-05:00

Max Sawicky has been running a small series of late he calls "Postcards from the Edge", and yours truly gets a mention yesterday as one of the few bloggers who has the temerity to dissent from the free trade faith. Well, I can thank my education in economics for that, for I am not a professional economist nor have I any degrees in economics. I have a B.A. in Political Science and Russian

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1118410918050035972005-06-10T13:40:00.000-05:002005-06-10T13:42:29.356-05:00

Yes, March was indeed just a dream.The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that total April exports of $106.4 billion and imports of $163.4 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $57.0 billion, $3.4 billion more than the $53.6 billion in March, revised.This number puts the US trade deficit back into familiar

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1118369930682784172005-06-09T21:03:00.000-05:002005-06-09T21:18:50.693-05:00

fatbear calls our attention to Friday's release of the April US trade balance data. According to Bloomberg the consensus forecast is a deficit of $58bn, which would come in as the fourth largest monthly deficit ever, $3bn more than March's pullback tally but $2.5bn less than February's record.As I claimed last month, March's numbers looked awfully funny. If I may quote myself,When taking in the

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5407991.post-1118264330158099972005-06-09T08:45:00.000-05:002005-06-09T08:42:28.796-05:00

Looks like there is something else Americans aren't going to make anymore.General Motors Corp. said Tuesday that it would eliminate 25,000 U.S. manufacturing jobs and close several factories over the next three years to revive its sagging North American auto operations. . . .The job cuts outlined by Rick Wagoner, GM's chief executive, would slash the Detroit-based giant's hourly employment in the

Gen. Gluthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12961499215640778784noreply@blogger.com0